中国地质灾害与气候波动的耦合性探讨

GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS AND THE COUPLING OF THE CLIMATIC FLUCTUATION IN CHINA

搜集了元朝至民国期间历史资料所记载的地质灾害,以月为基本单位将各次地质灾害按时间顺序投影成时间谱图,并通过100个月的窗口进行1/2窗口的滑动平均统计得出相应的频数,对该频数的时间谱图和统计直方图的分析,揭示了中国地质灾害的发生具有274～290a的大周期和平均19.5a的小周期。在灾害发生的大周期中灾害随气候的连续递变而增强,灾害发生的大周期是气候变化周期的一半。灾害发生的小周期与地球章动(晃动)主周期、太阳—月亮—地球的公共会合周期、木星和土星的会合周期、沙罗周期等十分接近。

This paper collects geological disasters recorded in historical data from Yuan dynasty to the period of Mingguo,projects every geological disaster into a chart about time in sequence,and obtains average statistical corresponding frequencies through half gliding of 100month windows.Analysing these timefrequencies and statistical maps,we find out geological disasters in China have characteristics of the big period of 274-290 years and the small period of average 19.5 years.The disasters of the big period increase with the continuous change of climate,and the big period is the half of the small period of climate.While the small period is close to the period of the earth nutation,period of sunmoonearth meeting,period of Jupiter and Saturn meeting,and the period of eclipes.