基于准许收入目标的地区电网投资规划方法研究

Research of Regional Power Grid Investment Planning Method Based on Permitted Income Target

输配电价改革后,电网企业新增投资必须带来足够的电量增长,才能保证所核定的输配电准许总收入。提出了一种基于准许收入目标的地区电网投资规划方法,基于未来各级电网及新能源投资规划情况,测算出准许收入所对应的经济效益,以此为目标分析负荷高、低增长预期下电网的经济性,在此基础上针对负荷低增长预期下电网经济效益的不理想,提出改进测算分析方法。以湖北省某地市电网为例,进行了电网投资规划计算分析;计算结果表明,该方法不仅可以为制定5年期电力发展规划提供支撑,也能在负荷低增长预期下保证电网经济效益。

After the transmission and distribution tariff reform,the new investment in power grid enterprises must bring sufficient electricity growth so as to ensure the approved total revenue of transmission and distribution. This paper proposes a regional power grid investment planning method based on permitted income target. According to the future investment planning of various voltage levels of the power grid and new energy,the paper calculates the economic benefits corresponding to the permitted income. Taking this as the objective,the paper analyzes the economic efficiency of power grid with high load and low growth expectation,on the basis of which the paper aims at the unsatisfactory economic benefits of power grid under low load growth expectation to propose an improved calculation and analysis method. Finally the paper takes a city power network in Hubei Province as an example to make a calculation and analysis of power network investment planning. The calculation results show that this method can not only provide support for the formulation of five-year electric power development plan,but also ensure the economic benefits of the power grid under low load growth expectation.