2018年个人所得税改革的减税效应评估——基于CGSS的模拟测算

Assessment of the Effect of Individual Income Tax Cuts in 2018 —— Simulation Calculation Based on CGSS

2018年最新的个人所得税改革在费用扣除方面作出重大调整,有利于降低税负,实现税收公平。利用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)中的劳动者群体样本基于改革前征收办法和改革后征收办法进行了个人所得税税负的模拟测算,研究了减税金额和减税的阶层分布,对本次个人所得税改革的减税力度和公平效应作了精确评估,得到如下研究结论:其一,本次改革的人均年减税额达到3 254.27元,相比改革前纳税人数量减少了61.56%。其二,相比高收入阶层,减税效应更多倾向于中低收入阶层。其三,住房相关支出扣除没有表现出明确的阶层倾斜性,子女教育和赡养老人支出扣除更加倾向于中低收入阶层,继续教育支出扣除基本发生在低收入阶层,而大病医疗支出扣除更加利好于高收入阶层。

The latest individual income tax reform in 2018 makes significant adjustments in the expense deduction,which is conducive to reducing the tax burden and realizing tax fairness.This paper estimates the individual income tax burden using the tax collection method before and after the reform,studies the tax reduction amount and its class distribution and makes accurate assessment of tax cuts and fairness effect of this individual income tax reform.Findings are as follows:First,the amount of tax cuts in this reform is 3 254.27 yuan per person,compared with the pre-reform taxpayer,which decreases by 61.56%.Second,tax cuts tend to be more effective for low-income and middle-income people than for those at the top.Third,the deduction of housing-related expenses does not show a clear class preference.The deduction of children’s education expenses and support for the elderly expenses tends to be more inclined to the middle and low-income groups.The deduction of continuing education expenses basically occurs in the low-income groups,while the deduction of medical expenses for serious diseases is more favorable to the high-income groups.