基于GM(1,1)模型的重庆市城镇化率预测研究

Prediction of Chongqing's urbanization rate based on GM(1,1) model

城镇化是推动中国经济持续发展的强劲动力,为有效预测重庆市城镇化率水平,并依据该城镇化率水平对重庆的区域发展做出相应规划。首先应用GM(1,1)模型构建了城镇化率的动态预测模型,然后对该模型的误差检验方法进行了研究,最后应用该模型对重庆市城镇化率的发展趋势进行了预测。研究结果表明,重庆市城镇化率的GM(1,1)模型通过了平均相对误差检验、均方差检验、灰色绝对关联度检验和小误差概率检验,该模型可以用于对重庆市未来城镇化率的预测。同时运用这个模型对重庆市城镇化率进行了预测并得出结论:重庆市城镇化率将以较快速度发展,在2015年达到62%,超过中国平均水平,这也证明了重庆市城镇化率水平比较高,对中国的城镇化发展贡献比较大,应继续保持这个发展速度以推进长江经济带的发展。

Urbanization,a strong driving force to promote the development of China's sustained economy,associates to predict the level of Chongqing urbanization rate and thereby helps the establishment of Chongqing's regional development plan.This essay firstly constructs the dynamic prediction model of urbanization rate by GM(1,1)model,then explores error checking methods of the GM(1,1)model,and finally forecasts the development tendency of Chongqing's urbanization rate.It is indicated by the research that GM(1,1)model passes through the average relative error test,variance test,grey absolute correlation degree test and small error probability test,which means it can be reliably utilized to predict Chongqing's urbanization rate in following years.Simultaneously,the research shows that Chongqing's urbanization rate would increase rapidly and will be 62%in 2015,which is above the national average rate.The outcome of the research illustrates that Chongqing's urbanization rate is relatively high and plays a significant role in China's urbanized development,which should be maintained to promote the growth of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.