改革开放以来中国生产要素绩效的国际比较研究

International Comparative Study on China’s Production Factor Performance since Reform and Opening-up

基于多国历史投入产出数据,在总量生产函数框架下,测度改革开放以来100个经济体生产要素绩效,比较中国经济生产要素绩效和主要经济体之间的异同,得出如下结论:(1)在过去近40年的经济增长过程中,中国经济出现资本绩效不断下滑、劳动力绩效和全要素生产率绩效于近年来稳步上升的趋势。(2)中国劳动力绩效和全要素生产率绩效在全球仍处于相对较低水平,在资本绩效降低、人口结构转型的背景下,如果无法切实提高劳动力绩效和全要素生产率绩效,未来中国经济增长的可持续性将受到影响。(3)通过国际比较研究发现,生产要素绩效的变化实质上是经济结构和经济增长方式转型的体现,面对传统依靠投资驱动经济增长模式的红利效应日益减弱现象,中国经济需要通过提高人力资本水平、激发自主创新能力等途径寻找经济增长新动能。

Based on the historical input-output data of different countries,this paper measures the performance of factors in 100 economies.By comparing similarities and differences of economic manufacture element performance between China and the main economic entity,the results show that:firstly,in the past 40 years of economic growth,the capital performance in China has been declining,the performance of labor and total factor productivity have steadily increased in recent years.Secondly,labor performance and total factors productivity performance of China are still relatively low in the world.In the context of reduced capital performance and demographic transition,if the labor performance and total factor productivity performance cannot be effectively improved,the sustainability of China’s economic growth will be affected in the future.Thirdly,through international comparative studies,it is found that the change in the performance of production factors is essentially the embodiment of the transformation of economic structure and economic growth mode.In face of the diminishing effect of traditional dividend-driven economic growth model,the Chinese economy needed to seek new energy of economic growth by improving the level of human capital,stimulating autonomous innovation capability.