基于灰色灾变理论的右江灌区农业干旱趋势分析

Drought Trend Analysis of Youjiang Irrigation District Based on Gray Catastrophe Theory

根据百色市右江灌区1961-2010年降雨量统计数据,分析该地区旱灾发生的时间分布特征。运用灰色系统理论建立灰色灾变预测模型GM(1,1),利用残差检验对模型进行了精度检验,并对该灌区未来两次旱年进行预测。结果表明,预测模型避免了人为主观原因造成的误差,精度较高,方法简单,为制定抗旱减灾决策提供了科学依据。

Based on the precipitation statistical dates from 1961 to 2010 in Youjiang irrigation district,the time distribution of drought in the region was analyzed.The gray catastrophe prediction model GM(1,1) was established using gray system theory,the accuracy of the model was tested using residual test,and the model was applied to predicte the next two drought years in this irrigation district.The results showed that the prediction model was simple and with higher accuracy,it could avoid the errors due to subjective causes,and provide scientific basis for the development of drought mitigation decisions.