2018年湖北省棉花市场综述和2019年市场走势分析

Overview of Cotton Market in Hubei Province in 2018 and Analysis of Market Trend in 2019

从全球来看,2018年全球棉花基本面略有改善,全球棉花总产2 585.3万t,同比减少107.9万t,减幅4%。全球棉花消费量增加2%,期末库存下降9%,处于近几年低位。从国内情况来看,棉花市场先扬后抑,1—5月棉花行情一路走高,6月中旬出现拐点,棉花市场一直弱势下行。从湖北省情况来看,2018年虽然国内受贸易战影响,部分纺织品订单减少,需求减弱,但2018年湖北省棉花当地市场全年子棉价格基本稳定,波动不大,棉价略涨。2019年湖北省棉花行情估计总体以稳为主,可能存在小幅波动,但难有大涨行情。

In global terms,the world cotton fundamentals improved slightly in 2018,with a total global cotton output of 25.853 million tons,down 1.079 million tons,damp 4%.Global cotton consumption rose 2 percent and ending stocks fell 9 percent to their lowest level in recent years.In terms of the domestic situation,the cotton market first rose and then fell.From January to May,the cotton market went all the way up.In Mid-June,there was an inflection point,and the cotton market has been in a weak downward trend in Hubei province,although some textile orders are reduced and the demand is weakened due to the impact of trade war in China,the price of seed cotton in the local cotton market of Hubei province is basically stable with little fluctuation,and cotton price slightly rise.The cotton market in Hubei province estimates in general should be given priority to with steady in 2019,there may be a small fluctuations,but there is surge in a hard.