平稳性协整性突变性等计量工具在外贸出口上的应用

Application of Econometric Tools of Stationarity,Co-integration and Mutablility in Foreign Trade Export

基于1986-2014年的数据对影响中国出口贸易的多个因素进行了实证分析.结果表明:各变量对外贸出口增长存在不同程度的影响,其中人民币汇率的影响最大、第二产业增加值和专利申请受理数次之、实际利用外商直接投资已呈现负向关系,并依此提出促进外贸出口的政策建议.

In this paper,an empirical analysis is made according to the multiple factors affecting China′s export trade based on data from 1986-2014.The result shows that each variable has different effect on for?eign trade export growth,the effect of the RMB exchange rate ranks first,the added value of the second in?dustry and number of the patent application accepted rank second, and the actual utilization of foreign di?rect investment has a negative relationship. Directing at the above,policy suggestions are put forward to promote the export of foreign trade.