基于人均用电量和人均用电负荷的饱和负荷预测

Saturated Load Forecasting Based on Per Capita Electricity Consumption and Per Capita Electricity Load

电力饱和负荷预测对城市、区域电网的规划与发展具有重要的作用,它可以有效的降低电网改造成本,提高电网改造的合理性、可靠性与经济性。主要采用基于人均用电量与人口预测的方法对华东某一小城市的全社会用电量的饱和规模与饱和时间进行预测。传统人均用电量法对负荷的预测主要采用预测得到的总电量除以评估得到的最大负荷利用小时数来确定负荷的大小。但是最大负荷利用小时数评估起来难度比较大,所以采用了新的基于人均用电负荷预测的方法,该方法运用logistic曲线分别预测人均用电负荷和人口的饱和值,再将两者相乘,即可得到饱和负荷规模。

Saturated load forecasting is crucial for the planning and development of urban and regional power grid. Accurate forecast of saturated load can effectively reduce the costs and improve the rationality,reliability and economy of upgrading power grid. The prediction of saturation scale and saturation time of an East China city' s total electricity consumption based on per capita electricity consumption and population forecast is presented in this paper. Traditional per capita electricity consumption method predicts the saturated load through dividing the total electricity consumption by maximum load utilization hours. However,it is difficult to estimate maximum load utilization hours. To solve the problem,a new method based on per capita electricity load is proposed in this paper. In this method,saturated per capita electricity load and saturated population can be obtained through logistic curve fitting,and then the saturated load of that East China city can be calculated through multiplying saturated per capita electricity load by saturated population.