基于负荷预测的城市配电网供电能力计算

Power Supply Capacity Calculation for Urban Distribution Network Based on Load Forecast

提出了一种基于负荷预测的供电能力计算方法,该方法利用预测模型得到负荷的增长模式。首先根据历史数据确定最佳预测模型,然后逐次调用预测数据进行潮流计算,直到第一次越限发生,最后利用半分法找到满足精度要求的临界点。实际算例表明,该方法思路清晰,计算简便,不仅提高了精度而且能够找出限制实际负荷增长的供电瓶颈,可为城市配电网的规划与改良提供有效的参考依据。

This paper presents a power supply capacity calculation method for urban distribution network based on load forecast,whereby the prediction model is employed to obtain the load growth mode.First,determine the optimal prediction model according to the historical data;then successively apply the forecast data for flow calculation until the first off-limit occurrence;finally,locate the critical point as the precision requirement using the bisection method.Actual examples show that the method,clear in logic and simple in calculation,can not only improve the precision,but also find out the bottlenecks of limiting the actual load growth,providing effective reference for urban distribution network planning and improvement.