基于人工神经网络的短期风电功率预测

Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Artificial Neural Network

风力发电近年来已进入规模化发展阶段。由于风能的随机性和间歇性特征,风电场输出功率往往具有波动性,因此其功率预测对接入风电的电力系统的安全稳定运行及保证电能质量有着重要意义。基于人工神经网络模型,对风电场输出功率进行24小时短期预测,并分析该预测模型的可靠性和精确性,提出改进方法和进一步研究方向。

Wind power has entered the stage of large-scale development in recent years. Due to the random and intermittent characteristics of wind power,wind power output tends to have volatility,so wind power prediction is of significance to the safe and stable operation of power system with wind power access,and guarantees the power quality.Based on artificial neural network model,this research makes 24-hour short-term forecasting of wind farm output power,analyzes the reliability and accuracy of the prediction model,and proposes the improvement method and further research direction.