基于改进贝叶斯模型的水电上市企业运营风险评价研究

Operational Risk Assessment of Listed Hydropower Enterprises Based on Improved Bayesian Model

随着水电产业的快速发展,水电上市企业的运营风险不断增加,研究适用于水电企业的运营风险评价模型已经成为亟待解决的问题。因此本文根据我国水电企业的生产经营现状与风险评价基本要求,引入熵权法和归一法,构建了改进的贝叶斯风险评价模型用于水电上市企业运营风险评价。选取三家水电上市企业的实际数据代入模型进行实证分析并根据计算结果进行比较,计算结果证明改进贝叶斯风险评价模型能够正确反映水电企业的运营风险现状,提高水电企业运营风险评价的准确性。

With the rapid development of hydropower industry,operational risk of listed hydropower enterprises have been increased,thus the operational risk evaluation model of hydropower enterprises have become a problem needs to be solved. Therefore,this paper has built an improved Bayesian risk evaluation model for operational risk evaluation of hydropower enterprises and has introduced entropy method and normalization method according to the production and operation of hydropower enterprises and the basic requirements of risk assessment. Meanwhile,actual data of listed hydropower enterprises has been introduced into the model represent the empirical analysis and comparison. The results of the calculation results proved that the improved Bayesian risk assessment model can correctly reflect the current state of the operational risk of hydropower enterprises and improve the accuracy of hydropower enterprises operational risk evaluation.