基于非参数统计法的DRM分析方法改进研究

Research on Improvement of DRM Methodology Based on Nonparametric Statistical Method

确定现实方法(DRM)基于响应面分析方法进行不确定性评价,并在现实模型中引入保守裕度,使得最终结果包络不确定性的可信度大于95%。本文在DRM的基础上,采用独立于不确定性参数的非参数统计法代替响应面分析方法,以峰值包壳温度为目标参数,对典型3环路压水堆核电厂的大破口失水事故(LB-LOCA)进行不确定性分析,结果表明:基于非参数统计法得到的满足95%/95%概率要求的峰值包壳温度被原有DRM的计算值所包络,通过该改进方法可以获得更大的安全裕量。

The DRM methodology uses the response surface method for uncertainty analysis, and introduces a penalization mode that covers the overall calculation uncertainty, which enables estimation of PCT with a confidence level greater than 95%. In this paper, taking the PCT as the target parameter, the nonparametric statistical method was used instead of the response surface method to perform uncertainty analysis in LB-LOCA accident. It was found that, the PCT of 95%/95% level based on nonparametric statistical method was enveloped by that based on DRM methodology. © 2015, Editorial Office of Nuclear Power Engineering. All right reserved.