长三角产业集聚的经济效益分析——基于静态和动态空间计量杜宾模型

The Economic Effect of Industrial Agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta:Based on the Static and Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model

以长三角地区制造业、金融业、高科技产业和文化产业为研究对象,使用长三角地区36个地级城市1999年到2015年的相关数据,应用静态和动态空间杜宾模型,对这些城市产业集聚发展特点及其对城市经济发展的短期和长期的直接、间接和总体经济效益进行实证分析,其结果显示,长三角地区金融业集聚短期不利于、长期有利于城市经济发展;制造业和高科技产业集聚短期有利于、长期不利于城市经济发展;文化产业集聚短期不利于城市经济发展,但从长期看,对城市经济发展的影响不明确。为了稳固长三角地区在经济发展中的龙头地位,需要政府适时打破行政区域界线,统筹规划、适当干预并调整其产业发展的方向和节奏,促使产业集聚有利于城市经济发展。

Taking the manufacturing,financial,high-tech and cultural industry in the Yangtze River Delta region as the research object,and using the data from 1999 to 2015 of 36 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region to build eight spatial weight matrices,this thesis applies static and dynamic spatial Durbin model( SDM) for empirical analysis of the characteristics of industrial agglomeration development and its short-term and long-term direct,indirect and overall economic benefits to regional economic development. According to the empirical results show that financial agglomeration is unfavorable in the short term but beneficial in the long term to urban economic development. On the contrary,the cluster of manufacturing and high-tech industry is beneficial in the short term but unfavorable in the long term to urban economic development. The agglomeration of cultural industries is not conducive to urban economic development in the short term,and its influence on urban economic development is unclear in the long term. In order to stabilize the leading position of the Yangtze River Delta region in economic development in China,the government needs to ensure industrial agglomeration beneficial to urban economic development through breaking the administrative boundaries,making overall planning,intervening and adjusting its development direction and rhythm.