农村一二三产融合对农民增收的门槛效应研究——基于2005—2014年31个省份面板数据的实证分析

An Empirical Study of Threshold Effect of Rural Convergence of Primary,Secondary and Tertiary Industries on Increasing Farmers' Income

运用2005—2014年全国31个省份的面板数据,设置门槛变量,进行非线性门槛回归,以分析农村一二三产融合推动农民增收的具体机制,其结果表明,在农村一二三产融合促进农民增收效应模型中,存在农村人力资本水平、农村文体娱乐固定资产投资、农林牧渔固定资产投资3个门槛变量,而且,农村人力资本水平、农村文体娱乐固定资产投资、农林牧渔固定资产投资均为农村一二三产融合的单向格兰杰原因。因此,有关部门应将农林牧渔及各类固定资产投资保持在适当水平,培育新型农业创新创业人才,进一步促进文旅产业与农业的融合,从而有效提升农村一二三产融合对农民增收的效应。

To study the specific mechanism of the impact of rural convergence of primary,secondary and tertiary industries on farmers’ income increase,this paper selects panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2014 to test the threshold effect of rural convergence of primary,secondary and tertiary industries on farmers ’ income increase. It shows that in the model,human capital level in the countryside,rural recreation and sports investment in fixed assets,agriculture,forestry and fishing investment in fixed assets are threshold variables. In different intervals of different threshold variables,the promoting effect on farmers ’income with the increasing level of rural convergence of primary,secondary and tertiary industries has remarkable difference. Human capital level in the countryside,recreation and sports investment in fixed assets,agriculture,forestry and fishing investment in fixed assets are unidirectional granger cause of the level of convergence. Therefore,the relevant departments should keep the agriculture,forestry and fishing investment in fixed assets at an appropriate level,cultivate new types of innovation talents and entrepreneurs in agriculture and enhance the integration of recreation,tourism and agriculture in order to improve the effect of rural convergence of primary,secondary and tertiary industries on farmers’ income increase.