高投资推动的增长缘何陷入进退两难——基于投资的产业链效应对中国产能过剩的解释

The Reasons Why High Investment Promoting Growth Is Caught in a Dilemma——Analysis of Over Capacity Based on the High Investment

基于对中国政府主导投资的考察,本文提出了以下观点:1自1978年以来,政府主导高投资一直是中国经济增长的主要动力,但投资推动增长的实际效果在逐渐下降;2长期的高投资率不仅创造出了产品需求增量及相关产业链,而且该产业链的产能、产品结构和一部分GDP又决定于投资,使得高投资政策的退出存在难度;3高投资推动增长政策的退出不仅需要产业结构转型,也需要包括劳动报酬管理政策在内的要素市场体系的完善。

Based on the investment led by Chinese governments,this paper comes up with the following points,first,the investment led by Chinese governments has been the main factor of promoting China's economic growth since 1978,but now the real effects have been declining; second,long- time high investment has made many products as well as related industrial chain,so it is difficult for high investment policies to exit now; third,how to exit this high investment policies needs the transform of industrial structure,improvement of market system and so on.