城市天然气月用量的预测方法

Prediction method of city natural gas monthly consumption

基于城市天然气用量具有"有限制增长"特点以及以12个月为周期变化的规律建立城市月用气量预测模型,分析不同类型城市预测模型的相关参数,并进行实例应用。结果表明,基于逻辑斯蒂原理以及月用气量变化分布曲线函数建立的城市月用气量预测模型可以很好地表征城市月用气量的增长过程特点和周期变化规律;不同类型城市的月用气量变化分布曲线特征值及其变化范围各异,而且高峰点前后曲线宽度不同。集中采暖类城市月用气量高峰特征值与低谷特征值相差较大,非集中采暖类城市月用气量高峰特征值与低谷特征值相近,完全生产类城市月用气量具有明显的个体特点。

A prediction model of city nature gas monthly consumption was established basing on city natural gas monthly consumption's limited growth and period of 12 months,the related parameters of different types of city of prediction model is analyzed,and example is applied.The results showed that the prediction model of city nature gas monthly consumption which was established basing on logistic and distribution curve,can be a good characterization of the growth of city gas in process characteristics and change rules;the characteristic value and its variation range of distribution curve was different from each type of city,and the width was different before and after the peak point curve.The peak and trough eigenvalue of distribution curve of natural gas monthly consumption was big difference when the city had central heating system,the peak and trough eigenvalue of distribution curve of natural gas monthly consumption was little difference when the city had non central heating system,the natural gas monthly consumption of complete production city had obvious individual characteristics.