朝核政治:理论逻辑与现实困局

Politics of Korean Nuclear Issue:Theoretical Logics and Actual Dilemma

20世纪90年代朝核危机爆发以来,各方围绕朝鲜核政治的博弈动机一直扑朔迷离。朝鲜核政治的背后乃是各方现实利益的杯葛和较量。以解决朝核问题为主旨的六方会谈,在朝核试爆之后,其使命由昔日的劝阻朝鲜发展核武转变为敦促朝鲜放弃核武,但由于这一模式先天的局限,迄今为止产生的几个共同文件均未能触及维护朝鲜半岛无核化的核心问题。第六轮六方会谈虽然开启了朝鲜核设施去功能化工作,但由于未来存在太多不可预测因素,企图借助六方会谈实现朝鲜彻底弃核和半岛重归和平的前景并不乐观。

Since the breaking-out of Korean nuclear crisis in mid 1990s,there have been many assumptions and analyses on the rather intricate motivations of various parties on the politics over Korean nuclear issue.The author thinks that the disputes and struggles of various parties for their current interests are the true essence hidden behind the politics of Korean nuclear issue.Since the experiment of nuclear weapons by North Korea,the task of Six-Party Talk has been converted from the obstruction and prevention on North Korea's attempts on development of nuclear weapons,to promotion on North Korea's abandonment on nuclear weapons.However,due to born limitations and defects of framework of Six-Party Talk,the several documents,which have been jointly created on the talk till now,have never touched the core issue of maintenance over denuclearization on Korean Peninsula.Although sixth turn of Six-Party Talk has launched the work of de-functioning on nuclear facilities of North Korea,there is still little optimistic prospect for a recovery of peace on the Korean Peninsula achieved by North Korea's abandonment of nuclear weapons promoted by Six-Party Talk.