中韩自由贸易区的经济成效预测与分析

The Evaluation and Analysis of Economic Effects of a China-Korea FTA

本文在考察中韩贸易特征与现状的基础上,运用一般均衡模型分析了中韩FTA对两国福利、GDP、进出口、贸易平衡、贸易条件及产业产出等产生的各种潜在经济影响和冲击。研究结果表明:中韩两国建立FTA后将会增加两国福利、实际GDP和进出口量。韩国拥有比较优势的制造业部门将受益,而其大部分农业部门由于相对的竞争劣势将可能遭受损失。中国所得利益主要在于农业和劳动力密集型的制造业部门,而资本与技术密集型的产业部门会遭受一定冲击而受损。

This research evaluates and analyzes the potential economic effects of China and Korea FTA on their respective welfares, GDP,Exports,Imports,Trade balances,Terms of trade and Sectoral output using CGE models,basing on the trade features and status quo between the two countries.Simulation results imply that China-Korea FTA would increase the welfares,real GDP,exports and imports for the two countries.Korea's manufacturing industries are generously expected to benefit while its most agricultural sectors would suffer due to their relatively weak competition.Majority of China's agricultural sectors and its labor-intensive manufacturing industries would gain but its capital or technique-intensive industries would suffer from the exterior attack.