朝美关系正常化的可能及其对中国的影响

The Possibility of Normalization of DPRK-US Relationship ant Its Influence on China

朝核问题与朝美关系中的粮食援助、人权、导弹、驻韩美军等问题相互纠缠又相互分离,核问题的解决并不一定伴随着所有问题的解决。朝美目前交恶的状况,除了冷战遗留的影响,主要取决于朝美之间错误知觉和敌人意象等微观因素的影响。要想打破恶性循环的怪圈,双方必须要有意愿和决心,通过提升官方交流,增加民间交往,逐渐改变对彼此的知觉和敌人意象,使关系进入良性循环的轨道。就目前来看,这个过程是漫长的。短期看,朝美关系正常化对中国是有利的,有利于中国周边环境的稳定和经济发展。从战略意义上说,中国的半岛利益必须在朝美关系正常化的过程中争取,而不是坐等局势变化。

DPRK-US relation is not so good at present.That is not only because of the nuclear debate which is focused by international society,but also because of missile issues,human rights,US-ROK alliance and food aids problems.These elements are connected with each other and nuclear issue is just the most urgent thing among the bilateral relations.The bad situation between North Korea and the United States origins from Cold War in one hand,it also matters with political psychological elements such as mis-perception and enemy image on the other hand.Both sides should change the mis-perception and enemy image by establishing regular official and civilian communication,and building benign circle relations.The process will be a long-term work.In short-term,the normalization of DPRK-US relationship could benefit China for its result of stable surround environment.China must maintain its strategic peninsula interest by involving the process but not wait and do nothing.