朝鲜战争中的危机管理问题研究

Studies on Crisis Management in the Korean War

朝鲜战争是二战后朝鲜半岛地区发生的最为严重的一次危机。这场战争不仅给半岛人民及所有参战国家带来了巨大的人员伤亡和损失,而且对地区新格局的形成和发展带来了极其深远的影响。当前,朝鲜半岛局势又处在一个关键时期,朝鲜国内局势尚不明朗,各种矛盾相互交织,各方利益错综复杂,半岛格局又酝酿着重大变化。本文从危机管理的角度重新透视朝鲜战争爆发的原因,分析当时各方的战略判断与战略决策,总结各方的危机管理目标与手段,同时总结朝鲜半岛第一个危机管理机制——停战机制的形成、作用,分析当前停战机制面临的困境及未来走向。通过上述分析,对维护朝鲜半岛的和平与稳定及对当前的朝鲜核危机实施有效管理提供积极的借鉴意义。

The Korean War was the most serious crisis on the Korean Peninsula after World WarⅡ.The Korean War not only brought huge losses and damages to the people and nations in the region,but also had a far-reaching impact on the shaping and development of the new regional paradigm.Today,the situation on the Peninsula is at a critical stage because of the ambiguous internal situation,interwoven contradictions and interests of all sides,which may signify major paradigm changes on the Peninsula.This paper,in a crisis management approach,re-explores the causes of the War, analyses the strategic assessment and decision-making,targets and means of crises management of all sides,discusses the inception, roles,problems and the prospect of the first crisis management scheme—the armistice agreement.In this sense,the paper provides a useful insight for the management of the Korean nuclear crises and maintenance of peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.