奥巴马上台后的美朝关系走向

Trend of U.S.-North Korea Relation since Obama's Inauguration

目前,奥巴马政府仍希望通过对话来解决朝核问题,并在未来一段时间内通过六方会谈和美朝双边对话等接触政策来使朝鲜转变态度,但未来两三年后,不能排除其对朝政策从温和转向强硬的可能性。未来美朝关系的发展走向可能出现三种趋势:美朝就缔结和平条约及关系正常化问题开始谈判,朝鲜在弃核的道路上继续往前走;日韩等国和美国国内保守势力牵制着奥巴马政府在朝鲜"弃核"的问题上不能"降低标准",美朝关系陷入僵持状态;美国政府为转移国内视线对外"挥舞大棒",对朝鲜的核设施实施"点穴式"的精确打击。未来美朝双边会谈和六方会谈很可能将形成并存的"双轨制",美朝双边会谈的作用将日益显现,六方会谈能否取得进展将取决于美朝双边会谈能否有所突破。

At the present,Obama administration still hopes to resolve the Korea Nuclear Issue through dialogue and negotiation,and tries to alter North Korea's attitude by means of such engagement measures as six-party talk and bilateral dialogue between U.S.and North Korea in the near future.However,in 2—3 years in the future, the possibility should not be precluded that Obama administration might convert its North Korea policy from mild engagement to tough position.Three trends might be possible on the North Korea-U. S.relation in the future:1) U.S.and North Korea might begin their negotiation on a peace treaty between U.S.and North Korea,and on the normalization of their bilateral relation,then North Korea might step forward on the issue of renunciation of nuclear weapons;2) U.S.-North Korea relation might fall into a stalemate because Obama administration,restrained by Japan,ROK,and U.S.domestic conservatives,might refuse to lower their standards and requirement on the Korea Nuclear Issue;3) U.S.might'brandish its stick'so as to convert its domestic attention from dissatisfaction on financial crisis towards external strife,and deal some kind of surgical strike or targeted liquidation on North Korea.In the future,a dual-track system might be formed,containing both U.S.-North Korea bilateral negotiation and six-party talk,with U.S.-North Korea bilateral negotiation playing a more and more important role.In this way,the U.S.-North Korea bilateral negotiation will obtain an even more outstanding status with even more influence,while the development of six-party talk depends on the possibility of breakthrough in the U.S.-North Korea negotiation.