美韩同盟的现状和未来

US-ROK Alliance,Today and Tomorrow

本文从建构主义的视角,通过考察美韩两国各自的战略思想,来探索美韩关系的未来走向。首先,本研究考察了美国大战略思想对美韩同盟的意蕴,该分析与韩国战略立场相结合,尤其是在涉及朝鲜事务之时。该分析对于我们理解美韩关系的未来走向尤其重要。两极化的冷战格局解体后,随着中国的崛起,一个能够重塑国际秩序替代性的全球格局尚未形成。考虑到上述不确定性,不同的思潮对于我们理解美韩同盟的未来走向就显得至关重要。再者,美国针对朝鲜半岛的政策,基本上都是在其大战略的框架之内制定出来的。和美国的战略类似,韩国在后冷战时期的朝鲜政策也不是铁板一块,其基础尚不牢固,尽管它的主要战略立场,已经从遏制转向了吸纳参与。正因为美韩的安全政策尚未完全成型,探索和比较其战略立场,有助于我们为其未来的合作伙伴关系寻求一个共同的基础。本文对两国战略思潮的演变进行了历史分析。该分析表明,一般而言,两国针对朝鲜的战略立场正在逐渐趋同,尤其是涉及对平壤进行威慑之时。然而,美韩同盟关系曾经一度出现紧张态势——当韩国和朝鲜求和解而把美国排除在外之时。当下美韩两国当局针对朝鲜的战略立场,大都是相互合作的,并呈现趋同态势。然而,一旦华盛顿和平壤之间的紧张关系持续升级成为军事冲突,美韩之间的战略裂痕就会不可避免地出现,因为韩国不会容忍在自己的土地上再进行一场战争。

This paper,from a constructivist perspective,explores the future of US-ROK relations by examining the two countries strategic ideas. In order to do it,this research,first,examines the implications of US grand strategy ideas on the US-ROK alliance. And the analysis links to ROK’s strategic perspectives,in particular concerning DPRK issues. Such analysis is particularly significant in comprehending the future of the US-ROK relationship. Since the dissolution of the polar Cold War dynamic and the rise of China,a replacement structure is yet to appear to shape the international order. Given such uncertainty,ideas are vital to understanding the direction the US-ROK alliance is heading toward.Moreover,US policy toward the Korean peninsula has been mostly shaped within the context of formulating its grand strategies. As with US strategies,ROK’s postCold War DPRK policy has not been firmly established,despite its main pillar shifting from containment to engagement. As both allies’ security policies are influx,exploring and comparing their strategic ideas is conducive to seeking common ground for their partnership into the future. The historical analysis of the evolution of strategic ideas in both countries shows that in general both allies’ strategic postures towards DPRK have been converging, particularly on deterring Pyongyang’s threats. However,the allies’ relationship was somewhat strained when ROK and DPRK bilaterally pursued reconciliation,excluding US. The current US and ROK administrations’ strategic postures with regard to DPRK is,for the most parts,collaborative and converging. However,in case that the tension between Washington and Pyongyang continues to escalate into a military confrontation,a strategic cleavage between the two allies would be inevitable,considering the ROK’s low tolerance of another war in its land.