“一带一路”下中国OFDI对中亚五国经济增长的影响测度

Impact Measurement of Chinese OFDI on the Economic Growth of Five Central Asian Countries in the Context of One Belt and One Road strategy

中亚5国是"一带一路"战略下中国重点投资对象。运用C-D生产函数构建FGLS模型,基于2003—2013年面板数据测度中国OFDI对中亚5国经济增长影响程度。研究表明:中国OFDI对中亚5国经济增长的总体影响比较显著,但各国影响程度有差异,对哈萨克斯坦影响最为显著,其次是塔吉克斯坦和土库曼斯坦,对吉尔吉斯斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的影响很弱。综合各种因素,预测在"一带一路"战略下,中国OFDI对中亚5国经济增长的影响差异会进一步扩大:塔吉克斯坦提升空间最大,其次是乌兹别克斯坦,其他3国影响不大。这为中国提供了具体的投资建议:在投资环境评估、投资合作对象、投资领域以及合作方式方面全方位转变投资合作模式。

The five central Asian countries are the key investment objects in the contex of ' One Belt and One Road ' strategy. The impact of Chinese OFDI on the economic growth of five central Asian countries is measured based on the FGLS model constructed by C-D production function and the panel data from 2003 to 2013. Studies show that the overall impact of Chinese OFDI on five central Asian countries' economic growth is relatively significant,but there are differences among the five countries. The impact on Kazakhstan is the strongest, the impact on Tajikistan and Turkmenistan is medium and the impact on Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan is the weakest. With a combination of various factors,it is predicted that based on'One Belt and One Road'Strategy,the impact gap of Chinese OFDI on the economic growth of five Central Asian countries may be further widened: Tajikistan may have the maximum improvement space,Uzbekistan has the second one,and the other three countries have the minimum space.The research results provide a reference for Chinese investment policies: comprehensive transformation of investment and cooperation mode in terms of environment evaluation, investment partners, investment fields and cooperation modalities.