一种基于STIRPAT模型的民航业碳排放预测方法

A METHOD TO PREDICT THE CARBON EMISSIONS OF CIVIL AVIATION BASED ON STIRPAT MODEL

借鉴STIRPAT模型,选取运输总量、每千吨运输量运送的距离、每千吨公里油耗三项因素作为自变量,以1996—2011年的指标数据为样本,运用偏最小二乘回归方法构建了我国民航碳排放预测的STIRPAT模型,并对2012—2015年我国民航碳排放进行测算和预测,最后基于情景假设与分析从减少燃油消耗和不断提高燃油效率的方面给出了减碳的建议。

Referring to the STIRPAT model,three factors including transportation volume,one thousand tons of transportation volume transport distance、fuel consumption per thousand kilometers were selected as independent variables for predicting carbon emissions. Using the data from 1996 to 2010 as sample,PLS regression to contract the STIRPAT model of China civil Aviation's carbon emissions prediction was applied and the carbon emissions from 2012 to 2015 was predicted. Based on analytical methods and scenario analysis,the results showed that China civil aviation could reduce fuel consumption and constantly improve fuel efficiency so as to achieve carbon reduction target.