低碳经济的驱动因素及其驱动机理分析

RESEARCH ON THE INFLUENCE FACTOR AND INFLUENCE MECHANISM OF LOW-CARBON ECONOMY

根据对低碳经济内涵的理解,将单位GDP二氧化碳排放(碳强度)作为低碳经济的核心要素。通过文献回顾的方式提炼其主要驱动因素,并通过通径分析测算各驱动因素对其的总影响、直接影响和间接影响,明确了作用机理。其中,能源总量对碳强度增长起直接推动作用,但在总作用上通过总人口和经济增长的间接影响起抑制作用,总人口、经济增长、产业结构等是碳强度增长的主要抑制因素,能源消耗结构是碳强度增长的主要推动因素。

With the understanding of low-carbon economy,this paper takes the carbon emissions intensity as the core element of low-carbon economy. The main factors influencing the carbon emissions intensity are refined by reviewing the literature,and their total,direct or indirect influence are calculated in use of the path analysis,and the influence mechanism is also clarified specifically. Results indicate that total energy,population,GDP and industrial structure can help the declination of carbon intensity,opposite to energy consumption structure.