高校招生中“宽进”之宽度的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the "Easy Accessibility" in College Admission

随着经济体制的转型和社会的迅速发展,人民群众对知识渴求的增大,高校招生实行宽进严出势在必行。但是,一方面要考虑到高校自身的承受能力,另一方面还要考虑能否最大效度地推动国民经济的进一步发展,故探讨高校招生的最佳宽度显得尤为必要。选取1992-2004年间的高等教育毛入学率和人均GDP两个指标,运用实证的方法,假设在不扩招的情况下,为推动国民经济更好地发展,计算出1998-2004年间相对适度的毛入学率大约在8．76-16．82％之间。

With the transformation of the economic mechanism and the fast development of the society, people's pursuit to knowledge is increasing very quickly, so 'easy accessibility' to higher education is becoming more and more necessary. However, we should not only consider the pressure higher education institutions have to shoulder, but also consider whether the 'easy accessibility' can push the development of national economy very effectively, in this sense, it is very necessary to explore into the proper extent of 'easy accessibility'. Here an empirical analysis is conducted with gross admission rate and GDP Per Capita as the two important indexes. The calculation shows that, when higher education expansion is not considered, the relatively proper gross admission rate for the years 1998-2004 should be 8.76%-16.82%, and this rate can better push the development of national economy.