2013—2015年潍坊市大气污染及其对肺炎住院人次的影响

Impact of air pollution on daily pneumonia hospital admission in Weifang in 2013-2015

目的了解潍坊市2013—2015年大气污染状况,定量评价大气污染对当地肺炎患者住院人次的影响。方法收集2013年11月—2015年10月期间潍坊市空气质量指数(AQI)、SO2、NO2、CO、PM2.5和PM10监测数据、气象数据和肺炎入院数据,描述污染现状,并采用广义相加模型分析大气主要污染物对肺炎住院人次的影响。结果 PM2.5、PM10、CO、NO2和SO2浓度均呈明显的季节变化,表现为冬、春季较高,夏、秋季较低;PM2.5、PM10、NO2和SO2的超标率分别为39.7%,38.6%,1.8%和4.1%,CO不超标;各污染物在采暖期的平均浓度均高于非采暖期。单污染物模型显示,各污染物对肺炎住院人次的影响均呈不同的滞后效应。多污染物模型显示,PM10对女性16~35岁组滞后1 d的肺炎住院人次有影响,RR(95%CI)为1.021(1.007~1.036);SO2对女性0~15岁组滞后2 d的肺炎住院人次有影响,RR(95%CI)为1.016(1.006~1.026);NO2分别对男性36~55岁组和女性0~15岁组滞后2、4 d的肺炎住院人次有影响,RR (95%CI)分别为1.076(1.025~1.128)和1.032(1.006~1.059)。结论研究期间潍坊市空气污染状况具有明显的季节特征,空气质量以良好和轻度污染为主;PM10、SO2和NO2对当地肺炎住院人次有不同程度的影响。

Objective To explore the characteristics of ambient air pollution and the impacts of pollutants on the daily hospitalizations of pneumonia in Weifang.Methods The monitoring data of AQI,SO2,NO2,CO,PM2.5 and PM10,meteorological data and pneumonia hospital admission data in Weifang,Shandong province were collected during November 2013-October 2015.The present situation of air pollution in Weifang was analyzed by statistical description.The generalized additive model was used to quantitatively analyze the influence of major air pollutants on the daily hospitalizations of pneumonia.Results Levels of PM2.5,PM10,CO,NO2 and SO2 had obvious seasonal variations,higher in winter and spring,lower in summer and autumn.During the study,the over-standard rates of PM2.5,PM10,NO2 and SO2 were 39.7%,38.6%,1.8%and 4.1%respectively,CO did not exceed the standard limit.The average levels of five pollutants in heating period were higher than those in non-heating period.According to the single-pollutant regression model,the five pollutants showed lag-effect on daily pneumonia inpatients.As for multiple-pollutant regression model,PM10 had effect(lag1)on daily pneumonia inpatients for women aged 16-35(RR(95%CI):1.021(1.007-1.036))SO2 had effect(lag2)on daily pneumonia inpatients for women aged 0-15(RR(95%CI):1.016(1.006-1.026))NO2 had effects(lag2)on daily pneumonia inpatients for male aged 36-55[RR(95%CI):1.076(1.025-1.128)],it also had effects(lag4)for female aged 0-15(RR(95%CI):1.032(1.006-1.059))Conclusion During the study,the air pollution status in Weifang city have obvious seasonal characteristics,which is dominated by good quality or slight pollution.PM10,SO2 and NO2 have adverse effect on daily pneumonia hospital admission of local people in different degrees.