北极航道开通对我国能源供求形势的影响

Impact of the Opening of Arctic Waterway on China's Energy Supply and Demand Situation

文章对我国能源供求现状进行概述,在此基础上根据《中国统计年鉴》中的数据,利用1990-2013年的能源需求总量时间序列构建ARIMA模型,进行相关拟合与检验,并运用此模型对2016-2018年的能源需求量进行预测,揭示我国面临的能源供求形势。结果表明,未来我国能源需求量将持续增长,在能源供给相对不足的情况下需依赖大量进口,而进口能源的稳定供应又受到各种威胁制约。在此背景下讨论北极航道开通为我国能源供应带来的机遇,以及对缓和我国能源供求形势产生的影响,进而提出相关政策建议。

This paper summarized the status quo of China's energy supply and demand,and on this basis,according to the data of China Statistical Yearbook,the ARIMA model was constructed by using the total energy demand time series from 2013 to 1990,and the fitting and testing were carried out.Using this model to forecast the energy demand from 2016 to 2018,the situation of energy supply and demand in China was revealed.The results showed that the energy demand in the future would continue to grow.In the case of insufficient energy supply,China's energy supply needs to rely on a large number of imports,and the stable supply of imported energy in China is under threat.In this context,the opening of the Arctic waterway is an opportunity for China's energy supply,which will ease the impact of China's energy supply and demand situation.Furthermore,relevant policy proposals were put forward.