基于Logistic_exp模型的苏尼特羊早期生长发育规律研究

Study on early growth and development of Sunite sheep based on Logistic_exp model

为了探索苏尼特羊的生长发育规律,提高非线性模型的拟合度(R^2)和预测准确度,提出一种新的结合气象因子的生长模型Logistic_exp,针对该模型首先采用灰色关联分析法得出影响苏尼特羊月增重的气象因子排序,其次将最大影响因子风速以线性、指数方式引入传统生长模型中,并对所有非线性模型进行拟合。结果表明:新模型的R^2达到0.999,最后使用2012年的体重和气象数据对Logistic_exp模型进行验证,Logistic_exp模型在各月龄的估计值和实际值最吻合,误差最小,具有更高的R^2。

In order to explore the growth and development law of Sunite sheep and improve the fitting degree(R^2)and prediction accuracy of the nonlinear model,a new growth model Logistic_exp combining meteorological factors was proposed.In this model,firstly,grey relational analysis was used to obtain the order of meteorological factors influencing the monthly weight gain of Sunite sheep.Secondly,the maximum impact factor wind speed is introduced into the traditional growth model in a linear and exponential manner,and all nonlinear models are fitted.The results showed that the fitting degree of the new model reached 0.999.Finally,the results of the Logistic_exp model were verified using body weight and meteorological data for nearly one year.It is found that the Logistic_exp model is the most consistent with the actual value of each month,with the smallest error and higher fitting degree(R^2).