基于L-V模型的中国生猪产业规模化结构演进研究

Research on the evolution of scale structure of China’s pig industry based on L-V model

Lotka-Volterra模型也称猎食模型,是Logistic模型的延伸。笔者采用Lotka-Volterra模型,以2002—2016年中国生猪年出栏量为样本数据,将生猪养殖户分为散户养殖和规模养殖两大类进行实证分析,以研究生猪市场结构演进的动态过程。结果表明:我国生猪产业规模化具有稳定点,该稳定点显示我国生猪市场均衡状态为散户养殖与规模养殖并存,其年出栏量均衡值分别为21 494.184 1万头和50 773.460 9万头。我国下一阶段发展生猪养殖规模化应当有序提高生猪养殖规模程度、加强散户养殖模式政府管理并严格制定生猪市场准入准出门槛。

Lotka-Volterra(L-V)model,also knawn as the predator model,is an extension of the Logistic model.L-V model was used in this paper to study the evolution of scale structure of pig industry in China.Based on the sample data of the annual pig output in China from 2002 to 2016,the pig farmers were divided into retail breeding and scale breeding for empirical analysis to study the clynamic process of pig market structure.The results showed that the scale of pig industry in China had a stable point which showed that the equilibrium state of pig market in China was the coexistence of retail breeding and scale breeding,and the average annual output was 214.941 841 million and 507.734 69 million,respectively.In the next stage of development of pig breeding in China,these measures should be carried out including improving the scale of pig breeding in an orderly manner,strengthening the government management of the retail farming model and strictly establishing the admission and exit threshold of pig market.