基于人口发展方程的人口老龄化趋势

Trend of Population Aging Based on Population Development Equation

通过人口发展方程,建立人口预测模型。预测出我国在独生子女、单独二胎和全面二胎三种不同计划生育政策下未来30年人口发展变化情况,进而计算出不同政策下人口老龄化的变化趋势。另外,应用人口发展方程的预测模型,在全面二胎计划生育政策下,取育龄妇女生育意愿分别为60%、65%、70%时计算相应的人口老龄化指数,给出不同生育意愿下人口老龄化趋势的比较。

Through the population development equation,the population forecast model is established.The development tendency of population of China in the future 30 years is predicted under the three family planning policies of one-child,two-child in the family of one parent of the only child and two-child in all families,and then the variation trends of aging of population are calculated under different policies.In addition,under the policy of two-child in all families,by using prediction model of population development equation and the corresponding population aging indexes of fertile women with fertility desire of 60%,65%,70% are calculated respectively.The comparative result of the trend of population aging with different fertility desire is provided.