电源规划中的可靠性分析

Reliability analysis in generation system planning

采用解析法对电源规划中的可靠性进行了分析,为电源规划和检修安排提供了重要的参考依据。电源规划中的可靠性是对发电容量是否满足负荷需求进行判断。因此建立了相应的容量模型和负荷模型,当考虑检修计划时,利用减机组算法修改容量模型。由于互联系统支援可以大大提高系统的可靠性,考虑系统相互支援以及联络线容量,建立了等效支援系统模型。利用并联算法将容量模型、负荷模型、等效支援系统模型合并,形成最终的综合模型。从综合模型中可得到5个可靠性指标:电力不足概率LOLP(LackofLoadProbability)、电力不足时间期望LOLE(LackofLoadExpec-tation)、电量不足期望值EENS(EnergyExpectationNotServed)、电力不足频率LOLF(LackofLoadFrequency)、电力不足持续时间D(Duration)。根据解析法已编制程序,并投入了实际应用,应用中证明算法设计的合理性。

Reliability index of generation system is one of the important parameters in generation planning and repair planning.The analytic method is applied in reliability analysis,which can decide if the generation capacity is enough to satisfy the load.The capacity model and the load model are built.When the repair plan is taken into account ,the capacity model is modified with unit-cut algorithm.Inter-system help improves reliability greatly.The equivalent inter-system help model is built,in which the capacity of transmission line is also considered.The paralleling algorithm is applied to integrate the three models into a synthesis model,form which five reliability indexes are calculated.They are LOLP(Lack of Load Probability),LOLE(Lack of Load Expectation),EENS(Energy Expectation Not Served),LOLF(Lack of Load Frequency),D(Duration).