成本—收益模型视角下老年人盗窃犯罪防控对策分析

Analysis on the Prevention and Control Measures of Elderly Theft Crime from the Perspective of Cost-Benefit Model

在经济学'理性人'假设的前提下,老年人实施盗窃之前会权衡犯罪的预期收益和预期成本。通过构建老年人盗窃犯罪的成本—收益模型,分析影响老年人盗窃行为的各个因素作用的大小,结论表明,当前我国老年人盗窃犯罪防控应以提高犯罪惩罚可能性为首要战略,辅之以提高罚金数额和犯罪预期机会成本。

Under the assumption of'rational person'in economics,the elderly will weigh the expected benefits and costs of crime before they commit theft.By constructing the'cost-benefit'model of the age’s theft crime,this paper analyses the role of various factors affecting the old people’s theft behavior.The conclusion reveals that the most important strategy for the prevention and control of theft among the elderly in China is to increase the possibility of criminal punishment,supplemented by increasing the amount of fines and the expected opportunity cost of crime.