基于自回归模型的基坑周边建筑物沉降预测分析

Settlement Prediction Analysis of Foundation Pit Surrounding Buildings based on Self-Regressive Model

为了确保基坑周边建筑物的安全,建立自回归模型研究周边建筑物沉降的趋势并及时预测。首先采用统计方法分析沉降监测基准的稳定性,然后根据某监测点16期观测数据,建立自回归模型AR(P),最后使用4期的预测数据与实测数据进行比较:预测值和实测值之间的最大差值不超过0.6mm。表明该模型有良好的预测结果,可应用于预测该基坑周边建筑物的沉降。

In order to ensure the safety of the buildings around the foundation pit, the trend of building self-regres?sion model to study the settlement of surrounding buildings is established for timely prediction. Firstly, the stability of the settlement monitoring datum is analyzed by statistical method. Then, the model AR (P) is established according to the monitoring data in the 16th phase of a monitoring station, and the maximum difference between the predicted value and the measured value is no more than 0.6mm though the comparison of the data obtained in the fourth phase. The results show that the model has good forecast results, which can be applied to predict the settlement of surround?ing buildings.