基于中长期负荷预测的调容变压器经济性分析

The Adjustable Capacity Transformer Economical Analysis Based on Medium and Long-term Load Forecasting

近年来,居民用电负荷特性发生明显变化,特别是农村,平时负荷低,春节等用电高峰负荷急剧攀升。为了应对这种情况,提升配电变压器运行经济性,调容变压器被研制开发和应用。但是,目前调容变压器适用的负荷特性往往只是定性给出,而且没有考虑调容变压器寿命范围内负荷的增长。如果选择不当,不仅造成投资的浪费,甚至还有可能造成损耗的增加。开展基于中长期负荷预测的调容变压器适用性研究和节能评估,对指导配电网节能降损和精准投资有重要意义。

In recent years, the residential electricity load characteristic changes significantly. Especially in rural ar-eas, the load is low at ordinary time, but the peak load rise sharply in Spring Festival. In response to this situationand to improve distribution transformer economical operation, adjustable capacity transformer was developed and ap-plied. But the suitable load characteristics of the adjustable capacity transformer was qualitative given, also did notconsider the growth of the load within adjustable capacity transformer life. If choose undeserved, it not only cause thewaste of investment, even may cause loss of increase. To develop medium and long-term load forecasting applicabili-ty research and evaluation of energy conservation of adjustable capacity transformer, is important significance toguide energy conservation and accurate distribution network investment.