世界大豆产品贸易变动及其效应分解

Changes of World Soybean Trade and Effects Decomposition

根据UN Comtrade数据库数据,分析了1995—2016年世界大豆产品贸易演变特征,并以美国、巴西、阿根廷等主要出口国和中国、荷兰、日本等主要进口国为例,利用修正的CMS模型分阶段对世界大豆产品贸易变动进行了效应分解分析。研究表明,随着世界大豆产品贸易额的快速增长,其贸易市场结构和贸易产品结构都较为稳定,贸易市场集中度和贸易产品集中度一直均较高;从主要出口国看,持续增长的国际市场需求是引起世界大豆产品出口增长的最主要原因,竞争力和出口结构也是重要原因且其作用方向及作用程度存在明显差异;从主要进口国看,国际市场供给和竞争力是影响世界大豆产品进口变动的最主要原因,进口结构也是重要原因,竞争力和进口结构的作用方向及作用程度存在显著差异。

Based on the data from UN Comtrade Database, the evolution features of world soybean trade from 1995 to 2016 has been analyzed, and a modified CMS model has been used to conduct effect decomposition analysis on the change of world soybean trade during different trade periods, by taking major soybean exporting countries and importing countries as examples, which respectively include USA, Brazil and Argentina, and China, Netherlands and Japan. The results show that, with the continued rapid growth of world soybean trade volume, both market structure and product structure of world soybean trade are stable, and both market concentration and product concentration of world soybean trade are always high. For major exporting countries, continued growth in the international market demand is the most important factor that causes the growth of world soybean export, and competitiveness and export structure are also the important influencing factors and the effect direction and effect degree of which are significantly different. For major importing countries, international market supply and competitiveness are the most important factors that influence the change of world soybean import, and import structure is also the important influencing factor, and the effect direction and effect degree of competitiveness and import structure are significantly different.