基于SOLANUM模型的甘肃中东部马铃薯潜在产量研究

On Potential Yield of Potato in Central and Eastern Gansu Based on SOLANUM Model

为探究马铃薯专用生长模拟模型SOLANUM对甘肃省中东部马铃薯产量预测的适用性,并分析该地区主要气候因子对马铃薯产能差的影响。本试验以3个马铃薯基因型为参试材料,利用SOLANUM模型计算并校准甘肃省天水市和定西市马铃薯模型参数,并对SOLANUM模型进行统计学的模型评价。结果表明,SOLANUM模型在甘肃省适用性评价中,产量和冠层覆盖度模拟结果相对均方根误差(RRMSE)均在16%~76.2%之间,模型效应系数(EF)在0.068~0.805之间。相关性分析表明,产能差变化与太阳辐射变化相关系数为0.8,与年降雨量变化相关系数为0.71;潜在产量与年降雨量相关系数为0.92,与太阳辐射相关系数为0.78;实际产量与年降雨量相关系数为0.89,与太阳辐射相关系数为0.68。综上,SOLANUM模型对甘肃省中东部地区马铃薯潜在产量和冠层覆盖度模拟具有适用性,但还需对马铃薯生长发育和生育期长短的估算进行深入研究,从而提高模型模拟精度和适用性。为缩小产能差,甘肃省应选择晚熟抗旱马铃薯品种种植。本研究结果为补充SOLANUM模型模拟精度和提高甘肃省马铃薯潜在产量提供了决策依据。

The aim of this study was to explore the applicability of the potato-specific growth simulation model SOLANUM to the prediction of potato potential yield in central and eastern Gansu province and analyze the effect of main climatic factors on potato yield gap in the region.Three potato genotypes were employed to calculate and calibrate the model parameters of potato varieties in Tianshui and Dingxi city of Gansu province by using SOLANUM model,and evaluate the SOLANUM model statistically.The results showed that the root-mean-square error(RRMSE)of both yield and canopy coverage simulation results in the suitability evaluation of the SOLANUM model in Gansu province was ranged from 16%to 76.2%,and the model Forecasting Efficiency(EF)was between 0.068 and 0.805.The correlation analysis showed that the correlation coefficient between productivity difference change and solar radiation change is 0.8,and the correlation coefficient between productivity difference change and annual rainfall change is 0.71.The correlation coefficient between potential yield and annual rainfall was 0.92,and that between potential yield and annual rainfall was0.78.The correlation coefficient between actual yield and annual rainfall was 0.89,and that between actual yield and annual rainfall was 0.68.In summary,the SOLANUM model has applicability to the simulation of potato potential yield and canopy cover in the central and eastern regions of Gansu province,however,it is necessary to conduct an in-depth study on the estimation of potato growth and growth period,so as to improve the accuracy and applicability of the model simulation.It was suggested that late-maturing varieties should be cultivated in Gansu province to reduce the yield gap.The results provid decision-making basis for supplementing the simulation accuracy of SOLANUM model and increasing the potential yield of potato in Gansu province.