基于2008至2017年郑州市二七区手足口病监测数据的时间序列建模分析

Time series modeling analysis of hand-foot-mouth disease surveillance data in Erqi District of Zhengzhou City from 2008 to 2017

目的:探讨时间序列模型在预测郑州市二七区手足口病(HFMD)发病方面的应用价值。方法:收集郑州市二七区2008至2017年相应的HFMD监测数据。选用R 3.4.4软件绘制热图,并应用SPSS 23.0建立季节性求和自回归滑动平均(SARIMA)模型,用2017年的手足口病发病例数进行验证。结果:SARIMA(2,2,1)×(2,2,1)12模型拟合较好,R2为0.624,对2017年HFMD的发病预测较为符合。结论:SARIMA模型在预测和评估HFMD流行趋势和发病情况方面表现较佳,可以用来辅助进行相应疫情布控方面的决策。

Aim:To explore the application value of time series model in predicting the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD) in Erqi District of Zhengzhou City.Methods:The corresponding HFMD monitoring datas for the region from 2008 to 2017 were collected.The R software 3.4.4 was used to draw the heat map,while SPSS 23.0 was used for modeling and other processing.A seasonally-summing autoregressive moving average(SARIMA) model was established and verified by HFMD cases in 2017.Results:SARIMA(2,2,1) ×(2,2,1)12 model fitted well with a stable R-square of0.624,and the HFMD morbidity prediction of 2017 also fitted well.Conclusion:SARIMA model performs better in predicting and evaluating HFMD epidemics and morbidity and can be used to assist the region in making decisions regarding the deployment of outbreaks.