徐州市肾功能下降患病率的年龄-时期-队列模型分析

Analysis of decreased renal function morbidity in Xuzhou City based on age-period-cohort model

目的:应用年龄-时期-队列(APC)模型分析肾功能下降患病率,为慢性肾脏病(CKD)病因探索、诊疗和预防策略提供科学依据。方法:利用2005～2012年徐州市中心医院体检数据,采用APC模型和混合效应法估计肾功能下降患病率的年龄、时期和出生队列效应。结果:APC模型结果显示,肾功能下降患病风险随年龄增长而增加;时期效应呈下降趋势,但效应值波动范围较小;出生队列效应在1922～1925年至1926～1929年出生队列、1946～1949年至1950～1953年出生队列、1958～1961年至1966～1969年出生队列和1974～1977年至1978～1981年出生队列呈上升趋势。结论:肾功能下降患病风险的变化可能与重大历史事件密切相关; APC混合效应模型能够较好地描述患病率的效应趋势。

Aim: To analyze the trends of decreased renal function morbidity using age-period-cohort( APC) model,and to provide scientific evidence for exploring the cause of the chronic kidney disease,diagnosing and developing preventive strategies. Methods: The data were obtained from the health examination center of Xuzhou Central Hospital from 2005 to 2012. APC model and mixed effects were applied to assess the effects of age,period and cohort on the risk of decreased renal function morbidity. Results: APC model analysis indicated the risk of decreased renal function morbidity increased with age and decreased with period,but the fluctuation range was small. The cohort effect rose during 1922-1925 years and 1926-1929,1946-1949 to 1950-1953,1958-1961 to 1966-1969,and 1974-1977 to 1978-1981 years. Conclusion: The fluctuation of the incidence of renal dysfunction may be related to the major historical events and the APC mixed model can describe the three effects of the prevalence rate well.