辽宁省水资源系统脆弱性分析

Vulnerability Analysis of Water Resources in Liaoning Province

文章在详细分析了投影寻踪、大样本数据、差值型曲线、粒子群算法等理论的基础上,从水资源复杂系统的角度建立了脆弱性评价指标体系,结合DPSIR框架体系建立了粒子群投影寻踪插值评价模型,然后以辽宁省为例,对该区域的水资源脆弱性利用模型进行了客观、全面的评价。结果显示:影响辽宁省水资源系统脆弱性的主要因素为基础条件薄弱和环境污染,并且短期内难以改变其资源型缺水现状。

Based on detailed analysis of the theory about projection pursuit, large sample data, different value curve and particle swarm optimization, a vulnerability evaluation index system from the perspective of water resources complex system was established in this study. Combined with DPSIR frame system, the particle swarm projection pursuit interpolation evaluation model was set up, then taking Liaoning Province as an example, to use the model to conduct objective and overall evaluation for vulnerability of water resources in this area. The results show that: major factors affecting the vulnerability of Liaoning Provincial water resources system are weak basic conditions and environmental pollution, moreover, it is difficult to change current water shortage of water resources in short term.