我国税制结构经济增长效应研究

Research on the Economic Growth Effect of Tax System Structure in China

党的十九大报告提出要"深化税收制度改革,健全地方税体系"。税制结构的变化必然会对经济增长产生影响。本文采用人均GDP、各省GDP增长率、各省夜间灯光亮度值和各省全社会用电量这四个指标来度量经济增长,利用1998-2016年省级面板数据,从税系结构、税类结构和税种结构三个层面来实证分析我国税制结构对经济增长的影响及其影响机制。研究发现:间接税占直接税比重和流转税类占比对经济增长具有负向效应;所得税类占比和财产税类占比对经济增长具有正向影响;个人所得税对经济增长具有正向影响;增值税对经济增长呈负向效应。根据分析结果,建议完善直接税和间接税双主体的税制结构,继续优化直接税与间接税内部的税种结构。

The Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to 'deepen the reform of the tax system and improve the local tax system'.The adjustment of taxation structure will inevitably affect economic growth.This paper measures economic growth with four indicators:per capita GDP,GDP growth rate of each province,night light brightness value of each province and electricity consumption of the whole society of each province.Using provincial panel data from 1998 to 2016,this paper empirically analyses the impact of tax system structure on economic growth and its influencing mechanism from three aspects:tax system structure,tax category structure and tax category structure.The research found that the proportion of indirect tax to direct tax and turnover tax has a negative effect on economic growth.The proportion of income tax and property tax has a positive effect on economic growth;Individual income tax has a positive impact on economic growth;VAT has a negative effect on economic growth.According to the research conclusion,we should establish the tax system structure of direct tax and indirect tax,and continue to optimize the internal tax structure of direct tax and indirect tax.