从M0变动趋势预测中国“无现金社会”发展

Forecasting the Development of China's "Cashless Society" from the Changing Trend of M0

随着近年来金融创新和电子支付的迅猛发展,20世纪中期就提出的"无现金社会"正在加速变为现实。本文首先运用时间序列分析法对中国1990年至2017年的流通中现金M0数据进行长期趋势分析,计算M0与M1、M2、GDP、居民储蓄余额和社会零售商品总额等五大比率,实证M0及M0与相关指标比率的持续下降趋势;其次,分析了银行卡普及、互联网移动支付迅猛发展,测算了非现金支付工具对现金的替代量;再次,分析了中国通往"无现金社会"的阻滞因素,指出"无现金社会"不是完全没有现金的社会,而是现金使用比例相对稳定在较低水平的社会,并运用Logistic阻滞增长模型对M0的饱和值进行了预测,得出中国"无现金社会"将在2035年前后到来的结论;最后针对"无现金社会"的挑战提出了对策建议。

With the rapid development of financial innovation and electronic payment in recent years,the concept of'Cashless Society'proposed in the mid-20 th century is accelerating to become a reality.Firstly,this paper uses the time series analysis method to analyze the long-term trend of China’s M0(currency in circulation)data from 1990 to 2017.The calculation of the five major ratios of M0 to M1,M2,GDP,total residential saving and total volume of retail sales indicates the possibility of a cashless society since the trend of these ratios declines.Secondly,we analyze the popularity of bank cards and the rapid development of mobile payment,then measure the replacement of cash by non-cash payment instruments based on the its current scale.Thirdly,we focus on the blockade and future development of China’s'Cashless Society'.Concerning the national conditions,the cashless society in China will not be a society that cash is greatly exaggerated,but a society that has a low and stable ratio of cash,and according to the logistic model,such a society will be achieved in 2035.Finally,countermeasures are proposed for the challenge of'Cashless Society'.