中国对外贸易环境效应:工业行业EKC与碳泄漏实证分析

Environmental Effects of China's Foreign Trade:An Empirical Analysis of EKC and Carbon Leakage in the Industrial Sector

本文测算中国工业部门44个细分行业碳排放量,划分为高低碳工业行业,然后构建模型进行分类实证检验。结果显示考察期内工业行业整体和低碳工业行业的对外贸易开放有助于减少碳排放,而且低碳工业行业存在"倒U型"的EKC曲线,分类行业碳泄漏问题实证检验证实,工业行业整体和低碳工业行业不存在碳泄漏问题,佐证了我国不需要为了环境保护而抑制对外贸易,而应该充分发挥对外经济开放"减排"效应;但是,分类行业EKC检验结果存在差异性甚至相反性,不同类行业碳泄漏检验结果也存在不一致性,这种结构性差异对我国制定对外贸易政策以及环境规制措施提出更高要求,需要注重行业结构性差异,制定差异化的行业环境规制措施,制定更加贴合绿色低碳经济产业发展的政策,引进先进技术,加大研发投入,实现产业升级。

This paper calculates the carbon emissions of 44 subsectors of China’s industrial sector,divides them into high and low carbon industrial sectors,and then constructs a model for the empirical test of classification.The results show that during the period of investigation,the open trade of the whole industrial industry and low-carbon industrial industry is helpful to reduce carbon emissions.Moreover,there is an inverted u-shaped EKC curve in the low-carbon industrial industry.The empirical test of carbon leakage problems in the classified industry confirms that there is no carbon leakage problem in the whole industrial industry and low-carbon industrial industry,which demonstrates that our country does not need to suppress foreign trade,but that the effect of'emission reduction'of the external economy should be fully played back.However,the EKC test results of classified industries are different or even opposite,and the carbon leakage test results of different industries are also inconsistent.This structural difference puts forward higher requirements for China to formulate foreign trade policies and environmental regulation measures.It is necessary to pay attention to industrial structural differences,formulate differentiated industrial environmental regulation measures,formulate industrial development policies more consistent with green and low-carbon economy,introduce advanced technologies,increase r&d investment,and achieve industrial upgrading.