金融减速器效应与经济波动的抑制——基于金融加速器理论视角的分析

An Analysis on the Financial Decelerator Effect and Economic Fluctuations Curbing ——A Perspective based on Financial Accelerator Theory

本文基于金融加速器理论的视角,从信贷路径和非信贷途径分析金融减速器机制和效应。目前国内关于金融减速器的文献十分少见,应该加强研究。根据我国现实情况,本文提出并分析了金融发展水平、国有经济比重、国有银行隐形担保、利率管制和价格效应等因素所导致的金融减速器机制。本文通过TVAR模型的比较检验发现,在包含金融减速器因素的情况下,投资、信贷、消费和贸易收支等对产出的冲击效应要小于不包含金融减速器因素条件下的冲击效应。这说明金融减速器效应存在,实证分析结果与理论分析取得一致。该结论的政策涵义是,应该重视金融减速器因素及其效应,抑制经济波动。这些抑制经济波动的措施包括,发展直接融资促进金融发展水平的提高,发展票据业务减轻信贷对经济的顺周期冲击,在发展壮大国有经济的同时积极支持民营经济的发展,在发挥国有银行对信贷资源配置作用的同时壮大其他商业银行和融资机构的融资作用,在经济下行阶段对利率进行适度调控等。

This paper analyzes the financial decelerator mechanism from the perspective of the theory of financial accelerator based on credit and non-credit channels.At present,the study on financial decelerator is very lacking.This paper proposes and analyzes kinds of mechanism induced by such factors as financial development level,the ratio of state-owned economy,invisible guarantee from state-owned banks and the control of interest rate and price effect etc.The comparative empirical analysis based on TVAR model shows that these shocks to output including financial decelerator factors,from factors such as investment,consumption,credit and trade,are less than those shock effects excluding financial decelerator factors.This shows that financial decelerator effect exists and this empirical conclusion is consistent to the analysis of the mechanism of financial decelerator.In order to curb the fluctuation of economy,we should make full use of financial decelerator effect.The measures to curb the fluctuation of economy are as follows:improving direct financing to enhance financial development level,actively developing bill business to alleviate the procyclical shock from credit,supporting the private economy in the course of developing state-owned economy,strengthening the financial role of other commercial banks,and appropriately regulating the interest rate in the economic downturn.