溢出效应、全要素生产率与中国工业产能过剩

Spillover Effect、Total Factor Productivity and Industrial Overcapacity: Space-time Evolution and Interaction Mechanism

规模经济、累积因果关系等因素交互作用形成区域非平衡力主导生产要素区际流动,并触发经济增长的溢出效应。溢出效应通过集聚效应机制造成区域全要素生产率差异。全要素生产率视域下,技术进步、资源配置效率区域差异引发产能过剩空间特异性分布。运用空间滞后随机前沿面板模型,测算2002-2017年中国31省(市)工业产能利用率,时间维度上中国工业产能利用率与经济波动具有一致性;空间维度上东部、中部、东北以及西部地区均存在产能过剩,且过剩程度递增。在经典迪氏生产力指数分析框架下测算2002-2017年中国31省(市)工业全要素生产率变动情况,发现全要素生产率与产能过剩存在空间分布一致性,并探索其交互机理。

The interaction of economies of scale,cumulative causality and other factors lead to the inter-regional flow of factors of production dominated by regional non-equilibrium forces,and triggers the spillover effect of economic growth.Spillover effect causes regional total factor productivity difference through agglomeration effect mechanism.From the perspective of total factor productivity,regional differences in technological progress and resource allocation efficiency lead to spatial specific distribution of overcapacity.Using the spatial lag stochastic frontier panel model,the industrial productivity utilization rate of 31 provinces(cities)in China hasbeen estimatedfrom 2002 to 2017.In the time dimension,the industrial productivity utilization rate of China is consistent with the economic fluctuation;in the spatial dimension,there are overcapacity in the eastern,central,northeastern and Western regions,and the degree of overcapacity is increasing.Based on the classical Dick productivity index analysis framework,the changes of industrial total factor productivity in 31 provinces(cities)of China from 2002 to 2017 have been measured.The spatial distribution consistency between total factor productivity and overcapacity was found,and the interaction mechanism has been explored.