生育红利、生育意愿与生育支持

Fertility Dividends, Fertility Desire and Fertility Support

基于全面二孩政策下出生人数不断下降的典型事实和部分学者对完全放松生育管控下多生育对技术进步和人均产出负面影响的担忧,本文从经验上发现,多生育不仅会增加未来劳动供给和资本存量,更重要的是,还会提升全要素生产率、产出以及人均产出的增长率。宏观上生育具有社会红利,微观上家庭为何不愿意生育呢?进一步研究显示:生育成本急剧上升且由家庭承担以及生育收益社会化使得生育行为具有了正外部性。为确保宏观上的生育红利,理论研究和经验上发现,表征为生育保险的生育支持政策具有社会化生育成本,规避正外部性的功效。文章的意义在于,实践上,可能会为完全放松生育管控,甚至采取生育支持政策提供一个经验依据;理论上,提出的正外部性机制可能会为将来发展和完善生育保险制度,提供经验上的证据和理论上的支撑。

Based on the typical facts of declining fertility under comprehensive two-child policy and some scholars’concerns about negative impact of fertility on technological progress and outputper capita.We found experientially that more fertility not only increases future labor supply and capital stock,but also increases the growth rate of total factor productivity,output,and outputper capita.On the macro level,fertility has dividend effect,but why is the family not willing to bearchildren on the micro level?Further research shows that the rising fertility cost and the socialization of fertility benefit make fertility behavior have positive externality.In order to ensure fertility dividend,we further discover that fertility support policies characterized by fertility subsidies can solve positive externality of fertility behavior.Themain contribution of the paper is that,in practice,it may provide an empirical basis for completely relaxing fertility control and even adopting fertility support policies;in theory,positive external mechanism of fertility behavior may provide empirical evidence and theoretical support for future development and improvement of maternity insurance.