美联储加息对中国经济的影响效应

The Impact of US Fed′s Interest Rate Hikes on China′s Economy

自2015年以来,美联储连续九次加息,美国的加息对中国产生了较强的溢出效应。以往学者较少关注美国加息对中国的投资、消费与进出口的全面的结构性影响,以及美国加息对中国经济影响的传导路径,因此难以有针对性地提出应对措施与政策建议。本文使用时变参数向量自回归(TVPVAR)模型,检验了美国加息可能存在的通过利率、汇率、股价和物价对中国的投资、消费与进出口的影响效应。研究结论显示:美国加息导致了中国国内投资下降、消费减少、进出口增加,而且中资企业会比外资企业承担更大的压力。相应的政策建议是:央行应向市场适度地定向补给流动性,政府应加大减税降费的力度,继续发挥进出口对于产业和需求结构的拉动作用,同时应警惕西方发达国家可能通过贸易转嫁风险。

Since 2015,the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates nine times in a row,and the increase of interest rates in the United States has had a strong spillover effect on China.Previous scholars paid less attention to the overall structural impact of US interest rate hikes on China’s investment,consumption and import and export,as well as the transmission path of US interest rate hikes on China’s economy.Therefore,it is difficult to put forward corresponding measures and policy recommendations.This paper uses the Variable Parameter Vector Auto-regressive(TVPVAR)model to test the possible effects of interest rate hikes in the United States on China’s investment,consumption and import and export through interest rates,exchange rates,stock prices and prices.The conclusion of the study shows that the increase of interest rate in the United States has led to a decline in domestic investment,a decrease in consumption and an increase in imports and exports in China,and that Chinese-funded enterprises will bear more pressure than foreign-funded enterprises.The corresponding policy suggestions areas follows:The central bank should supply liquidity to the market appropriately,the government should increase tax reduction and fee reduction,continue to promote the pulling effect of import and export on industry and demand structure,and should be alert to the risk that western developed countries may pass on through trade.