基于VAR模型的新疆高等职业教育与产业结构优化升级的互动研究

Researching on the interaction between Xinjiangs higher education and industrial structure optimization and upgrading based on VAR model

选取新疆1999年至2016年数据,以高职在校生增长率衡量高等职业教育发展情状况,对三大产业GDP产值占总产值比赋重,作为衡量产业结构优化升级的程度。在协整检验的基础上,构建新疆高等职业教育与产业结构优化升级的VAR模型,通过对变量进行格兰杰因果关系检验,脉冲响应与方差分解。最后,对新疆高等职业教育发展与产业结构优化升级进行实证检验,结果表明:两者间存在长期均衡关系,产业结构优化升级会促进高职教育规模扩大0.346%,对高等职业教育发展长期影响作用显著;高等职业教育发展对产业结构优化升级有一定促进,但长期作用会减弱,要进一步释放新疆高等职业教育服务区域经济发展的活力。

The data were selected from 1999 to 2016. The growth rate of college students measure the development of higher vocational education of xinjiang. The GDP output of the industry accounts for the ratio of the total output, as the measure of the degree of optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure. On the basis of coin-integration test, the VAR model of Xinjiang higher vocational education and industrial structure optimization, and the Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition. It shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the industrial structure and Higher vocational education. The optimization and upgrading of industrial structure will promote the expansion of higher vocational education by 0.346%, the long-term impact on the development of higher vocational education is significant;high vocational education will optimize and upgrade the industrial structure. but the long-term effects will weak. the vitality of Xinjiang’s higher vocational education service to regional economic development should be further released.