从“博弈论”看中法战争中清政府的外交策略

See Qing Government's Diplomatic Tactics in China-France War from Game Theory

在中国近代五次反对外侵的战争中,中法战争是中国唯一一次没有割地、赔款的战争,并且在军事胜利的情况下签订了《中法新约》。因此史学界对中法战争的结果是众说纷纭。文章试图从“博弈论”来分析清政府在战争中的外交策略,以说明清政府在镇南关胜利后,“乘胜即收”是正确的,但是却没有利用这一大好的机会为中国争得更大的权益,从这一点来说,是失败的。而清政府在外交谈判中没有利用武力威慑,缺乏抗战到底的决心,以及不注重对法殖民当局心理与信息的掌握,是使其失败的主要原因。

In modern China's five times of fighting against foreigners' aggression,China-France War was the only one which China didn't cede territories and pay reparations.What's more,China,as the victor had signed“The New Treaty between China and France”.Thus,there exist many different opinions about the result of the war in historiographical circles.This thesis tries to analyze Qing government's diplomatic tactics in the war from the angle of game theory and to explain that after the victory of Zhennanguan,it was right to withdraw troops with hot pursuit.However,they didn't utilize this good chance to try to gain more benefits for China.On this point,Qing government failed.During the diplomatic negotiation,Qing government didn't use force deterrence,lacked the determination to resist through to the end,and didn't pay much attention to the mastery of colonialist psychology and information which are the main reasons of its failure.